Ondrus, J., Bui, T., Pigneur, Y. (2014) A Foresight Support System Using MCDM Methods. Group Decision and Negotiation Journal (forthcoming).
In this paper, we demonstrate the design and use of a Foresight Support System (FSS) combining two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Tra- ditionally, foresight activities involves Delphi, focus group, or Estimate-Talk-Estimate techniques to collect opinions of an expert panel. Often, these techniques are not com- puterized and data visualization is rudimentary. Our highly-interactive FSS solves a number of inherent issues during the data collection, analysis, and results visualiza- tion processes. Despite that MCDM methods have been recommended for technology foresight, a validation with a real field experiment was still required. To evaluate our approach and FSS, we conducted a foresight exercise for the Swiss mobile payments market. Our research confirms that the use of MCDM methods supported with a com- puterized tool can enhance the foresight processes and results.